New Pluses and Minuses

New Pluses and Minuses

The swearing in of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States has brought in new equations for India as it has for many countries of the world, notably Pakistan. The eight-year stint of George W. Bush as US President had not gone down very well with many countries all over the world. If anything, President Bush managed to get the Islamic world strongly aligned against the US after the US reduced many parts of Afghanistan to rubble in its search for just one man whose terrorist persona, ironically enough, was the creation of the US itself, and also after the forcible occupation of Iraq and the execution of Saddam Hussein on trumped-up charges of possessing weapons of mass destruction in huge quantities. At home, in his own country, George Bush was an unmitigated disaster. He lost no time in destroying the economy that his predecessor Bill Clinton had painstakingly built up, thereby turning a healthy surplus budget into a deficit of about 10 trillion dollars. Americans all over the world were counting the days when he would step down at the end of his second term. With President Obama taking over the reins at Washington DC, we have a different equation now for very many reasons, the foremost of them being the fact that a democrat has been left with a legacy of responsibilities by a Republican that he can do very little to change, regardless of the fact that his key word has been ‘change’ right from the days of campaigning. One of these responsibilities is the lead role that the US set out to play in the global war on terrorism with the most accomplished exporter of terrorism — Pakistan — as its principal ally. And even though the US was not willing to listen to India and other countries about the total unsuitability of its choice, the attack on Mumbai of November 26 did not leave anyone in any doubt as to Pakistan’s support of terrorism. This time even the US was convinced (mainly through inputs from the CIA and the FBI), but there was not much that President Bush was willing to do. A Democrat President in the US is not likely to work any kind of instant magic, but immediately after assuming office, President Obama lost no time in telling Pakistan in unequivocal terms that unless Pakistan behaved, the US would have to think of cutting off economic aid. Apart from Pakistan’s irresponsible behaviour after 26/11, the Bush administration had learnt that the $7.5 billion economic aid that Pakistan had received from the US during the last five years for building roads, schools and health centres, had actually been diverted to assist terrorist groups. There is similar economic assistance of $7.5 billion from the US assured during the next five years. Obviously, the US does not wish to see its future dollops of aid to Pakistan used in similar fashion. This is a plus point in favour of India, and mercifully, unlike other similar occasions when India has received good news, there has been no outburst of euphoria this time. Islamabad has sought to play down President Obama’s warning about stopping economic aid by letting the US know that Pakistan is not dependent on US economic aid as long as its ties of friendship with China are intact. It has also reminded the US that its ties with China have remained strong even in times of adversity. Even this stance of Pakistan could turn out to be a plus point for India in the days to come, if the US does not capitulate with Pakistan for being braver than India.What is unlikely to be a plus point for India is that in all probability US President Obama is likely to take a stand on the Kashmir issue mainly because here is one conflict that has encouraged terrorist activity and led to the perpetuation of proxy war in India. His intervention in Kashmir will doubtless be made to look like friendly help and the task could be made easier by the appointment of Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State in place of Condoleezza Rice. This intervention is likely to work in two ways. One is to make the intervention look like a friendly gesture, and the other is to simply follow the bad US precedent of having no respect for the sovereignty of other countries. This was the kind of intervention that the US rammed through in Iraq and though this may not be easy with India, President Obama is likely to give it a good try. This is likely to turn out to be a minus point. The other minus point being commented on is that there was no mention of India as such among the countries with which President Obama is thinking of forging special relationships. There is no need to worry about this one. source: sentinel assam