Anil Bhat
As a Bangladesh watcher and well-wisher of its secular majority, which proved its polling power like never before in the recent elections, one was quite apprehensive about the outcome of the Awami League (AL) resuming power after a decade of being down. While some decisions and developments in Dhaka came as good news, much hoped for in New Delhi, they also seemed too good to last. That the first blow to Sheikh Hasina’s government comes from the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) may be a surprise only in a limited sense. But a strong possibility, which cannot be ruled out, is that this mutiny is but a modus with the definite aim of queering the Awami League’s pitch at the beginning of the match itself. And there is no dearth of candidates and agencies for such bids.
The Awami League (AL), known for its struggle for liberation of erstwhile East Pakistan against suppression by the Punjabi-dominated Army and Army-dominated government of erstwhile West Pakistan and that achieved the aim of independence with the birth of Bangladesh in December 1971, routed the BNP in an election unprecedentedly peaceful and high in turnout of voters. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal Asia found ‘‘good news’’ in the results, stating ‘‘this is no small accomplishment for a Muslim country with a small but menacing Islamist fringe’’, but cautioned that the AL bears a heavy burden of delivering clean governance to an electorate exhausted by the corruption that has marred most Bangladeshi governments since independence in 1971.
The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organized a round table on ‘‘Growing Terrorism in South Asia: Evolving Common Strategies’’ on January 21, at New Delhi, attended by members of the strategic community and a delegation from Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies (BIPSS) led by its president Major General (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman. Gen Muniruzzaman said that terrorism could destabilize the peace and security of the region. ‘‘That’s why we have to think beyond our boundaries to look for the solution. Bangladesh, like India, is a victim of terrorism. A few years back, Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) had launched a series of terrorist attacks by conducting 487 bomb blasts in 63 out of 64 districts across the country within half an hour. The bomb blasts proved the capabilities of the terrorist organization. The stated policy of Bangladesh is not to tolerate terrorism, be it of any form. That’s why most of the culprits were caught and executed in accordance with the law of the land. This stringent action of the government against the terrorists remained instrumental in checking the activities of the group. Recent intelligence analysis has shown that the group is once again organizing its cadre and expanding its base in a different manner. But now the JMB is emerging with a number of splinter groups.’’ He added that unlike the JMB, the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) has regional footprints. HuJI is the only group having capacity to link up with groups in India and Pakistan. It also has connections with Al-Qaeda.
With CLAWS having sponsored my latest book Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge (Knowledge World), which deals with both illegal migration and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) actively coordinating terrorist activities from Bangladesh into Assam, its Director, Brigadier (retd) Gurmeet Kanwal, invited me to speak at this round table. I elaborated on the severe blow to Bengaliyat —meaning Bengali ethos and culture, which I had enjoyed the experience of during my visit there — dealt by ISI and fundamentalist forces in Bangladesh during the tenure of BNP. I also expressed the hope of the AL addressing the issue of ULFA rebel leaders luxuriously ensconced there with support from the ISI and Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). Brigadier Kanwal observed that terrorism generated, supported and spread from the Bangladeshi soil poses another grave challenge to India’s security and that it cannot be denied that ULFA is sheltered inside Bangladesh despite the state being against all such activities.
Dr Smruti S Pattanaik, working on Bangladesh at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, during a discussion with me, said that Sheikh Hasina’s government seems sincere and that there was no reason why Dhaka should not hand over ULFA boss Paresh Barua to India, as this would be important in improving India-Bangladesh bilateral ties, which were quite strained during BNP’s rule.
As this piece was being written, there came a very encouraging announcement by the AL government — of its coming to an agreement with India to hand over Anup Chetia, the ULFA leader who has been in a Bangladesh jail since 1996. Mr Hasan Mahmud, Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister who is also a special assistant to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was quoted by bdnews24.com, New Delhi, on February 18: ‘‘We have mutually agreed on the handover, now we have to decide on the formalities of how to hand him over. It will also include handover of Bangladeshi criminals who have fled to India... Since 2001, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami had ministers in their government who chanted slogans to turn Bangladesh into Afghanistan... they nurtured a range of terrorist organizations. Terrorism in Bangladesh started and then flourished under that government.’’
The sum total of the Foreign Minister’s statement — coming 19 years after ULFA’s entry into Bangladesh — is a diplomatic windfall for India and a body blow to ULFA. Both countries will nonetheless have to maintain pressure while being wary, as these groups are bound to retaliate. India and Bangladesh must seize the opportunity to turn the tide in a major geo-strategic part of South Asia, because the positive fallout will be not only peace but also prosperity for Bangladesh and India’s northeastern region.
However, in the light of Maj Gen Muniruzzaman’s observations, the proximity of DGFI to the fundamentalist forces mentioned, BDR being officered by the Bangladesh Army, the way the mutiny erupted, spread and took its toll on BDR’s leadership, and its ramifications are ominous. And it has come with an uncanny timing very shortly after the AL government’s decision to hand over ULFA leader Anup Chetia as part of a package of measures mutually agreed upon with and very reassuring to India. In fact, the resumption of power by AL after almost a decade of chaos in Bangladesh and the nadir of its relations with India had indeed raised hopes of a substantial improvement in the same. Given BDR’s mutiny, the Army stepping in its place could be disturbing to both the Bangladeshi public and to India.
(The writer is a Delhi-based security analyst who spent a part of his career in the Northeast) The Sentinel
As a Bangladesh watcher and well-wisher of its secular majority, which proved its polling power like never before in the recent elections, one was quite apprehensive about the outcome of the Awami League (AL) resuming power after a decade of being down. While some decisions and developments in Dhaka came as good news, much hoped for in New Delhi, they also seemed too good to last. That the first blow to Sheikh Hasina’s government comes from the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) may be a surprise only in a limited sense. But a strong possibility, which cannot be ruled out, is that this mutiny is but a modus with the definite aim of queering the Awami League’s pitch at the beginning of the match itself. And there is no dearth of candidates and agencies for such bids.
The Awami League (AL), known for its struggle for liberation of erstwhile East Pakistan against suppression by the Punjabi-dominated Army and Army-dominated government of erstwhile West Pakistan and that achieved the aim of independence with the birth of Bangladesh in December 1971, routed the BNP in an election unprecedentedly peaceful and high in turnout of voters. An editorial in the Wall Street Journal Asia found ‘‘good news’’ in the results, stating ‘‘this is no small accomplishment for a Muslim country with a small but menacing Islamist fringe’’, but cautioned that the AL bears a heavy burden of delivering clean governance to an electorate exhausted by the corruption that has marred most Bangladeshi governments since independence in 1971.
The Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS) organized a round table on ‘‘Growing Terrorism in South Asia: Evolving Common Strategies’’ on January 21, at New Delhi, attended by members of the strategic community and a delegation from Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Strategic Studies (BIPSS) led by its president Major General (retd) ANM Muniruzzaman. Gen Muniruzzaman said that terrorism could destabilize the peace and security of the region. ‘‘That’s why we have to think beyond our boundaries to look for the solution. Bangladesh, like India, is a victim of terrorism. A few years back, Jama’atul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) had launched a series of terrorist attacks by conducting 487 bomb blasts in 63 out of 64 districts across the country within half an hour. The bomb blasts proved the capabilities of the terrorist organization. The stated policy of Bangladesh is not to tolerate terrorism, be it of any form. That’s why most of the culprits were caught and executed in accordance with the law of the land. This stringent action of the government against the terrorists remained instrumental in checking the activities of the group. Recent intelligence analysis has shown that the group is once again organizing its cadre and expanding its base in a different manner. But now the JMB is emerging with a number of splinter groups.’’ He added that unlike the JMB, the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al Islami Bangladesh (HuJI-B) has regional footprints. HuJI is the only group having capacity to link up with groups in India and Pakistan. It also has connections with Al-Qaeda.
With CLAWS having sponsored my latest book Assam Terrorism and the Demographic Challenge (Knowledge World), which deals with both illegal migration and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) actively coordinating terrorist activities from Bangladesh into Assam, its Director, Brigadier (retd) Gurmeet Kanwal, invited me to speak at this round table. I elaborated on the severe blow to Bengaliyat —meaning Bengali ethos and culture, which I had enjoyed the experience of during my visit there — dealt by ISI and fundamentalist forces in Bangladesh during the tenure of BNP. I also expressed the hope of the AL addressing the issue of ULFA rebel leaders luxuriously ensconced there with support from the ISI and Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI). Brigadier Kanwal observed that terrorism generated, supported and spread from the Bangladeshi soil poses another grave challenge to India’s security and that it cannot be denied that ULFA is sheltered inside Bangladesh despite the state being against all such activities.
Dr Smruti S Pattanaik, working on Bangladesh at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, during a discussion with me, said that Sheikh Hasina’s government seems sincere and that there was no reason why Dhaka should not hand over ULFA boss Paresh Barua to India, as this would be important in improving India-Bangladesh bilateral ties, which were quite strained during BNP’s rule.
As this piece was being written, there came a very encouraging announcement by the AL government — of its coming to an agreement with India to hand over Anup Chetia, the ULFA leader who has been in a Bangladesh jail since 1996. Mr Hasan Mahmud, Bangladesh’s Foreign Minister who is also a special assistant to Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, was quoted by bdnews24.com, New Delhi, on February 18: ‘‘We have mutually agreed on the handover, now we have to decide on the formalities of how to hand him over. It will also include handover of Bangladeshi criminals who have fled to India... Since 2001, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami had ministers in their government who chanted slogans to turn Bangladesh into Afghanistan... they nurtured a range of terrorist organizations. Terrorism in Bangladesh started and then flourished under that government.’’
The sum total of the Foreign Minister’s statement — coming 19 years after ULFA’s entry into Bangladesh — is a diplomatic windfall for India and a body blow to ULFA. Both countries will nonetheless have to maintain pressure while being wary, as these groups are bound to retaliate. India and Bangladesh must seize the opportunity to turn the tide in a major geo-strategic part of South Asia, because the positive fallout will be not only peace but also prosperity for Bangladesh and India’s northeastern region.
However, in the light of Maj Gen Muniruzzaman’s observations, the proximity of DGFI to the fundamentalist forces mentioned, BDR being officered by the Bangladesh Army, the way the mutiny erupted, spread and took its toll on BDR’s leadership, and its ramifications are ominous. And it has come with an uncanny timing very shortly after the AL government’s decision to hand over ULFA leader Anup Chetia as part of a package of measures mutually agreed upon with and very reassuring to India. In fact, the resumption of power by AL after almost a decade of chaos in Bangladesh and the nadir of its relations with India had indeed raised hopes of a substantial improvement in the same. Given BDR’s mutiny, the Army stepping in its place could be disturbing to both the Bangladeshi public and to India.
(The writer is a Delhi-based security analyst who spent a part of his career in the Northeast) The Sentinel
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