Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Election Arithmetic

According to media reports, the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections are going to cost even more than the recent presidential elections of the United States of America. This is not something that ought to be looked upon as a status symbol, but rather as a kind of extravagance that no country like India, with more and more people slipping below the poverty line every day, has a moral right to countenance. According to information available from the US Federal Election Commission, President Barack Obama and others spent close to US $ 1.8 billion (about Rs 8,000 crore) in the 2008 presidential elections. According to a survey conducted by the Centre for Media Studies (CMS) in India, the amount to be spent on the coming Lok Sabha elections would be of the order of Rs 10,000 crore (about US $ 1.93 billion). Out of this amount, the government spending would be about 20 per cent (including about Rs 1,300 crore by the Election Commission and about Rs 700 crore by various Central and State government agencies on things like photo identity cards, electronic voting machines and polling booths). Various political parties are expected to spend about Rs 1,650 crore from their party funds, with the two major political parties — the Congress and the BJP — accounting for about Rs 1,000 crore. Candidates of the national parties are likely to spend about Rs 4,350 crore with those from the regional parties spending a further Rs 1,000 crore.
However, there are two sinister aspects to the election spending that should not be overlooked. The first is that the coming Lok Sabha elections are going to cost more than twice the expense of Rs 4,500 crore on the Lok Sabha elections of 2004. True, we have had inflation in excess of 12 per cent for a brief spell, but this has been brought down to levels closer to half that figure. In any case, even with a very adverse inflation rate, there is no way of justifying an increase in election expenses of over 122 per cent in just five years. Any government that seeks to do this or chooses to wink at such abnormal increases of election expenses that more than double in just five years should be in the dock for doing nothing about abnormal inflation in the country and for a misguided attempt in some department of the Finance Ministry to cook up the inflation rate which must be far worse than what is projected by official statistics. Otherwise, how could the cost of just one of the government’s obligations has gone up by 122 per cent in five years? The Union government owes the nation an explanation for this. It must also inform the nation what it intends to do if the newly constituted government ceases to have a majority in the House in just a year or two and is obliged to go for a mid-term election again. It cannot go on spending public money as it wishes without any reference to the people at any time. In fact, the decision to spend Rs 10,000 crore on a single Lok Sabha election was arbitrary and quixotic in a democracy. The second sinister aspect of the forthcoming elections is the report that about one-fourth or Rs 2,500 crore is being spent through “unofficial money” or the cash to be paid to voters by the candidates. In other words, this is a case of buying votes, and no one seems to be ashamed of this or even unduly concerned about what is being done to our democracy. In fact, this explains why the coming Lok Sabha elections are going to cost 122 per cent more than the one held only five years ago. It may also explain partially why in the recent interim budget we had an 88 per cent increase over last year’s budget of only one outlay (rural jobs) which was increased from Rs 16,000 crore to Rs 30,100 crore. The kind of election arithmetic we have does not augur well either for democracy or the country. Perhaps a dose of poetic justice for a government that can play such dirty games with the public is very much in order. The Sentinel

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